- February 11, 2023
- Posted by: admin
- Category: English Publications
Now when the war in Ukraine is entering a new phase of development, the Serbian clerofascists consider it a historic moment that in the geopolitical repositioning of Serbia, they will gain guarantees for the strong marking of the borders of the “Serbian World” in the making. The association according to the 2013 agreement is the path from which this idea passes.
Strong winds of Serbian ethno-nationalism are blowing again in the space of the former Yugoslavia. Hegemonic Serbia has an appetite for further expansion.
What he had managed to achieve during the process of the disintegration of Yugoslavia, the clero-fascist heads who are in power today in Belgrade consider, is not enough. Appetite is increased by eating.
The progressive Slovenian and Croatian intelligentsia were the ones who came up with progressive political ideas and approaches, the creation of the federation of the Slavic peoples of Southeast Europe, which entered history under the name of Yugoslavia. Initially raised on the concept of time as the Kingdom of Serbo-Croatian-Slovenian, meanwhile after the Second World War, as a union from below, aligning with the new world in creation, as the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.
It was the outbreak of the Cold War and the ideological confrontation between the two superpowers who won the Second World War – the USA and the USSR, that had shaken the heads of that Yugoslav federation, who will make the historic decision to break away from Russian influence (1948 ), positioning itself as a supposedly neutral state, but de facto serving the interests of the West as a wedge for the collapse of the so-called “Socialist Camp”. Yugoslavia was transformed for decades as a model of the so-called “real socialism” that supposedly guaranteed “workers’ self-government”! As such, it had benefited from grants and staggering investments in the economy and in the army, despite the fact that the latter (the army) would remain dominated by Serbian officers with a pro-Russian orientation.
However, it was the Friendship Treaty that was signed between the USSR and the USA (1950) that would keep Yugoslavia connected to Western interests until the years when the real geopolitical reasons why Yugoslavia was created and was in German interest its disintegration (1991/99).
The war in Ukraine, and its expected turn this spring, makes the act of renewing that Treaty, now between the US and Serbia, guaranteeing the latter what was guaranteed to Yugoslavia at the world, when it culminated, quite possible. Cold War.
If the other peoples of the former Yugoslavia had experienced the collapse of the Yugoslav Federation as the biggest disaster, the Serbian klerofascists had planned the creation of Greater Serbia on the ruins of Yugoslavia. A series of projects were drawn up and made available to the Yugoslav Army (actually Serbian) to be put into action in due course.
The end of the war in Bosnia through the creation of the Republika Srpska, which was an organic part of the Serbian geopolitics of westward expansion since the outbreak of the Eastern War (1875) and of the projects being drawn up in Francuska 7 (Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts), had opened the door to the great project – the creation of the Serbian World, an example of the project of the Russian World that was replacing the USSR.
It was the end of the last century (1998/99), a very specific historical moment, when Serbia had misread the messages of Western diplomacy and had marched with the entire arsenal of the army towards Kosovo, setting in motion the famous project codenamed ” Patkoi”, through which he claimed to put an end to the ethnic cleansing of Kosovo by the Albanian element, somewhat similar to what he had done with Toplica and Sanxhak e Nis in 1877/78, and to guarantee the southern wing of the “Serbian World” in the making.
This genocidal act in the heart of Europe, repeated within a few years by that of Bosnia, could not be tolerated by the progressive Western world. Otherwise, the values and ideals on which the EU and the western civilized world were built would collapse before the eyes of the people of the liberal democracies. In this macabre situation in Kosovo that had been created by this act of Serbian violence, especially after the massacre in Prekaz and with emphasis on the one in Reçak which, thanks to the American ambassador U. Walker… had been made public, if he did not intervene militarily to ended this Serbian project, the reason for the existence of NATO was being questioned. The end NATO, as a structure and product of the political-military union, was created to serve the defense of the values of Western civilization proclaimed throughout the Cold War era.
That is why NATO’s intervention in Kosovo was based precisely on Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter.
But the capitulation of Serbia on June 9 was not the act that would lead to the dissolution of the Serbian Army that had committed the genocide in Bosnia and Kosovo. It would remain almost untouched! Meanwhile, its powerful rearmament by Russia, Turkey and China in recent years, as if it had not impressed Western diplomacy. That’s why Sesel and Milosevic’s minions – Aleksandar Vučić and Ivica Dačić today dare to put forward conditions before the new realignment of Serbia in favor of Western diplomacy! Today, they have set two preconditions for “separation” from Russia: the Association of Municipalities with a Serbian majority [of the Republika Srbska type] in Kosovo and the return of Montenegro under the full influence of Serbia.
The first precondition is mentioned through this paragraph of the statement of the US ambassador in Belgrade, Christopher Hill:
“If you read the text carefully, the first six points are about the formation of the Association and this is an essential element to move forward. This should be addressed first, followed by what is said in the Franco-German proposal which enjoys support from the EU. This document deals with broader ideas that require more time.” [ January 24, 2023]
This declaration de facto preceded the new process of negotiations with Serbia.
It seems clear that the year 2022 has marked the end of the dialogue process that started in 2011. Meanwhile, the new process of Western diplomacy, framed within the ten non-negotiable points that it contains, which mark a new stage of negotiation.
Unlike previous negotiations, the ones we are entering into are about dialogue between the two parties, respectively equal legal entities. This fact seems to be clear to Belgrade already.
This new framework of dialogue that is being imposed by Peredimi nullifies to a significant extent the Ahtisaari Package and makes it necessary to revise the Constitution of the Republic. This fact makes it necessary to engage the academic world and create the preconditions for confrontation at the negotiation table. The obligation resulting from the framework of this dialogue for the Kosovar side is the establishment of a form of Serbian self-government in Kosovo.
Solutions should be sought not in the model of the Serbian Church in Montenegro, but in the functional models that religious institutions have all over the EU. Meanwhile, for the second crucial issue imposed by this framework for dialogue, which is related to the political and governmental power that should be enjoyed by the Serbian minority in Kosovo. Of course, a European model should also be sought for the position of the Serbian minority, even if by repairing the competences guaranteed by the Ahtisaari Package for local self-administration, with an emphasis on education and health.
In the geopolitical clash for South-Eastern Europe (with special emphasis on the area of former Yugoslavia and Albania), after the war in Ukraine, the USA has also returned strongly.
In this energetic return, Ambassador Christopher Hill’s positioning in Belgrade is significant.
Obviously, this fact is positive in dealing with the influence of Russia and the growing influence of Turkey. The American administration, however, unfortunately, is meanwhile dominated by diplomats who have cultivated traditional friendship with Belgrade since the beginning of the Cold War.
It seems to these circles that even the Franco-German plan, which outlines a kind of intermediate peace, does not suit you. That is why Ambassador Hill, and not only him, so strongly supports the Serbian demands for the initial establishment of the Association, without even mentioning mutual recognition. With this act, Serbia is given a real opportunity to deepen its demands in the subsequent phase, which de facto federalizes Kosovo, as an overture to the final act – the annexation of the north. This possibility is guaranteed to Serbia by the following paragraph of the text of the preamble of the Basic Agreement, as it categorically states that
“the parties agree to this agreement based on the historical facts and without prejudging the different positions of the parties on the basic issues, including the issue of status”.
According to experts in international law, this provision preserves Serbia’s position that Kosovo does not represent an independent state. However, if the text of this proposal, including the preamble and its ten points, which is expected to be transformed into an agreement, is analyzed on a political level, then its acceptance as a Basic Agreement is a step towards the consolidation of Kosovo’s citizenship.
Therefore, these days, a special concentrated war is being waged against the government of Kosovo, also in relation to the acceptance of the Franco-German en bloc plan.
It is no coincidence that the president of the Republika Srpska entity, Milorad Dodik, states so openly that the Association of Serb-majority municipalities in Kosovo will one day be a new Republika Srpska.
“It is very good that they say so, one day it will be the Republic of Serbia. I mean this in the essential sense. It will be called the Association of Serbian Municipalities, it will have executive government functions like the Republic of Serbia. Special relationship with Serbia as the Republic of Serbia has,” he said to the “Klix.ba” portal, KOHA reports.
Serbia needs the north as a geostrategic position in the battle for the return of Montenegro under the flag of a new confederation and access to the sea. The return of Montenegro, as Serbia’s second precondition for “separation” from Russia, is part of the new Serbian strategy to compensate for the loss of Kosovo, since the Republika Srpska in Bosnia is already considered part of the “Serbian World” in the making .
In these circumstances already created, only a coordinated state battle with powerful lobbying in Washington, not only within the diplomatic and administration circles, but above all with the researchers of the West : East relations and the military strategists with influence in the diplomatic and political circles , is likely to get us out of the scenario of the federalization of Kosovo, its Cypriotization, or the avoidance of a new war with Serbia at a stage when it would be given the signal for the departure of military troops to the north.
The West must now start accelerating the process of radically changing Serbia’s behavior towards its neighbors. Only then can we talk about a democratic future for the region. This can and should be done by demonstrating to Vučić the unanimity of the West regarding the future of Southeast Europe and by making it clear to Belgrade that any possible military aggression in Kosovo is foolishness of its own kind and as such would receive the deserved response. .
Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine is rapidly sliding towards full escalation, for which both sides – both Ukraine (strongly supported by the West) and Russia – are actively preparing. This year’s spring seems to be even bloodier than the one of 2022. Therefore, it can be said that Pandora’s Box is opening completely as today [January 25] decisive decisions were made to support Ukraine with the weapons it needs. urgent, first of all with the American Abrams tank and the German Leopard 2.
In this new political momentum, Western diplomacy, by giving meritorious responsibility to the Serbian vozhda in relation to the aforementioned preconditions, puts an end to revanchist sales and Serbian expansion. Meanwhile, Serbia’s persistent effort to Balkanize Kosovo in line with the Čubrilović project, which envisioned the creation of “Slavic wedges” in the strategic areas of Kosovo, backfires like a boomerang on Serbia itself. Only then would it be possible to think of a transformation of Serbia from an authoritarian dictatorship into a federal republic, where the position of Sanjak and Vojvodina, together with that of the Preševo Valley [Preševo, Bujanoc and Medok], would enjoy the status of real autonomies political and territorial.
Therefore, it can be said that the time for a real political transformation of Serbia is coming.
* Lecturer at the ILIRIA University College/Director of the Albanian Institute for Geopolitics, Pristina/Kosova
Published on February 6, 2023 in: